The hottest subsidy decreases, cobalt price rises

2022-09-22
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Subsidies reduced, cobalt prices soared, and the power battery industry fell into pain

Abstract: the sharp price reduction of power batteries is also related to the overcapacity caused by the sharp expansion of production. According to the latest data of the Institute of high technology industry, the new capacity of domestic power batteries in 2016 was 2.8 times that of 2015, while the output increased by only 82% year-on-year

on the one hand, the subsidy for new energy vehicles in the downstream has declined significantly, on the other hand, the price of raw materials in the upstream has risen, and the power battery industry with overcapacity is in the throes of structural adjustment

according to the data released yesterday, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in January 2017 was 5400, down 61% year-on-year. Cuidongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger car Federation, believes that the sharp decline in sales of new energy vehicles in January is related to the new subsidy policy and the review of the new energy vehicle promotion catalogue before and after new year's day

subsidy decline is the key word of the new deal for new energy vehicles in 2017. According to the notice on the financial support policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles from 2016 to 2020, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles decreased by 20% from 2016 to 2018, and by 40% from 2019 to 2020. It was learned that affected by factors such as the sharp decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles, new energy vehicle manufacturers began to continuously force power plants to carry out comprehensive recycling and pool manufacturers to reduce prices. Data show that in early February 2017, the price of power batteries of Sanyuan line and lithium iron phosphate line decreased by more than 15% compared with December 2016. As new energy vehicle manufacturers are still in the adjustment period, at present, the overall construction of power battery enterprises is flat, and the order volume has decreased by more than 20% year-on-year

the sharp price reduction of power batteries is also related to the overcapacity caused by the sharp expansion of production. According to the latest data of the Institute of high technology industry, the new capacity of domestic power batteries in 2016 was 2.8 times that of 2015, while the output increased by only 82% year-on-year

the price reduction of power batteries also led to a decline in the price of materials with four major investments of 200million yuan. For example, the price of wet diaphragm in early February 2017 fell by about 9% compared with December 2016 during the "1025" period, and the price of electrolyte fell by 7%

however, the prices of cathode materials, ternary materials and lithium cobalt oxide have increased significantly. Data show that on February 8, 2017, the price of 4.35v lithium cobalt oxide has risen to 260000 yuan/ton, an increase of 18% over December 2016; In the same period, the price of power ternary material 523 was 155000 to 160000 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 5% compared with the end of the year

lithium cobaltate is the main raw material of ternary materials. The price of ternary materials and lithium cobalt oxide can rise against the market, which is closely related to another key word of the new deal for new energy vehicles in 2017, that is, subsidies are linked to the mileage of power batteries. The better the battery performance, the more subsidies, so the number of manufacturers investing in ternary lithium batteries has increased significantly, driving the demand for ternary materials. At the same time, half of the global cobalt resources come from the African Congo, but Congo's cobalt production is vulnerable to geopolitical influences. Data show that in 2016, Congo's cobalt production fell by 7.35% year-on-year

according to Moco, an analyst of lithium industry, the price rise of ternary materials, which account for about 30% of the cost of power batteries, has brought considerable cost pressure to power batteries and automobile manufacturers

Gaoxiaobing, a lithium battery analyst at Gaogong, believes that the overall overcapacity of power batteries in 2017 will lead to differentiation in the industry, especially the capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate and diaphragm will increase more. With the decline of downstream subsidies, the high gross profit of the diaphragm industry in the early stage will decline more, and the gross profit margin of lithium hexafluorophosphate and downstream electrolyte will also be adjusted to a certain extent, but the profit level is expected to remain stable

the first quarter is the traditional off-season of the automobile market. Industry insiders predict that in the next month or two, the prices of power batteries and the four major materials that help improve the effect of building floor decoration will fluctuate greatly

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